Bernstein raised its price target on Delta Air Lines to $88 from $81 and reiterated an Outperform rating, while UBS lifted its target to $95 from $86 as analysts bet the carrier’s fuel protection and revenue mix will keep earnings moving higher. Delta shares have climbed 49% over the past year, and the stock was trading near a market value of $48.18 billion with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 11x.

The calls came after Delta reported adjusted earnings of $0.64 a share in the first quarter of 2026, up 44% from a year earlier, on revenue of $14.2 billion. High-margin diversified streams made up 62% of total revenue, and American Express remuneration crossed $2 billion in the quarter, underscoring how much of the carrier’s profit engine now sits outside the traditional ticket sale.

At the center of the bull case is Delta’s structural fuel insulation advantage, built in part around its Pennsylvania refinery. The facility delivered a $0.06 per gallon benefit in the first quarter, and management projected a $300 million refinery benefit in the second quarter. With WTI crude at $109.76 a barrel in the article, that buffer matters: fuel typically accounts for roughly 20% to 30% of airline operating costs, and Delta said it expects to recapture 40% to 50% of more than $2 billion in second-quarter fuel headwinds.

That backdrop helps explain why Bernstein was trimming its sector-wide earnings estimates even as it raised Delta’s target. The firm’s view was paired with Delta’s broader defenses, including the Trainer, Pennsylvania refinery, a premium-heavy customer mix and diversified revenue streams. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the airline is best positioned to navigate the environment because of its leading brand, strong financial foundation and refinery benefit.

The numbers now in play suggest analysts are looking past the quarter and toward what Delta can keep converting into cash. The airline guided to second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.50 and about $1 billion in pretax profit, and it kept full-year 2026 EPS guidance at $6.50 to $7.50 with free cash flow targeted at $3 billion to $4 billion. The question for investors is whether that mix of fare strength, American Express money and fuel protection can hold up if crude stays near current levels and travel demand cools.