Inflation likely climbed to 3.8% in April, a fresh sign that price pressures are still running hot as the latest Consumer Price Index report is set for release today in Eastern Time. Economists and analysts expect the reading to rise 0.6% from March, extending a burst that already pushed prices up 0.9% from February to March, the largest month-to-month jump since 2022.
If those expectations are met, inflation will have moved above wage growth for the first time since 2023, leaving pay gains struggling to keep pace after two years of slowing increases. That is the number many households will focus on when they compare last month’s receipts with the same point a year earlier.
The April report matters because it would point to inflation hitting a nearly three-year high, with core inflation also expected to rise 0.3%. A Citigroup economist said it would take at least a few more months for rising energy costs to show up in the prices of core goods, and several analysts said the recent surge in gas prices has not yet fully reached consumers. That makes today’s release more than a routine update; it is a test of how much of the latest energy shock is still working its way through the economy.
The backdrop is unusually political as well as economic. Rising oil prices are framing Trump’s state visit this week to China, and he has said he would support suspending the federal gas tax. But an NBC News analysis found that even if the tax were suspended, gas prices would still be higher than they were at the start of the Iran war. That leaves consumers facing a market in which relief is limited and the biggest cost pressure may not yet be over.
The tension in this story is simple: prices are moving faster again, but the most visible pain may still be ahead of consumers rather than behind them. Core goods prices have not yet absorbed all of the energy increase, which means the April number could be only the first part of a longer run of higher costs. For readers tracking the economy, today’s CPI report will show whether March was a spike or the start of a more stubborn stretch.
