Alibaba is heading into its May 13 earnings report with its stock still about 29% below the October 2025 high of $192.67, even after a roughly 10% gain over the past year. The Hangzhou, China-based company is trying to change the story around Baba stock by recasting itself as an AI-first enterprise and folding its Qwen models directly into its shopping interfaces.
The shift matters because Alibaba, founded by Jack Ma in 1999, is no longer leaning only on its core e-commerce business. It is pushing cloud computing, digital media and artificial intelligence at the same time, while investors are still waiting to see whether that mix can translate into faster growth. The company’s Qwen AI models are described as the world’s most downloaded open-source family, and Alibaba recently integrated its Qwen2.5 Max model to automate logistics, price tracking and personalized shopping conversations.
The numbers behind that push were already strong in the preceding quarter. Total revenue came in at RMB 284.8 billion, or $40.7 billion, up 9% on a like-for-like basis. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue surged 36% to RMB 43.3 billion, AI-related product revenue grew at triple-digit rates for the 10th consecutive quarter, and the core China eCommerce segment rose 6%. Alibaba also said 88VIP members topped 59 million.
For shareholders, the appeal is not just growth but balance-sheet strength. Alibaba had a $41 billion net cash position and reduced its share count by 5% annually through aggressive buyback programs. It also recently raised $3.2 billion via convertible bonds, adding to the funds it can use for infrastructure, AI development and returns to investors. Management is aiming to surpass $100 billion in combined cloud and AI revenue over the next five years.
That ambition is arriving at a moment when the market is still trying to catch up. Alibaba has delivered a 71% return over the past two years, but that still trails the broader rally in technology, with the Nasdaq Composite up about 47% over the past year alone. The stock has also been recovering from its 2025 lows, yet it remains below its October 2025 peak.
Analysts, meanwhile, are not expecting a blowout when Alibaba reports on May 13. The average estimate calls for earnings of $1.02 per share for the March quarter, down 35% from $1.57 a year earlier, with estimates ranging from $0.48 to $1.62. For the full 2026 fiscal year, the average forecast is $4.32 per share, down 48% from $8.26 last year, with estimates between $4.11 and $4.94.
That gap between the company’s long-term AI pitch and the near-term earnings picture is what gives the report its edge. Alibaba is spending heavily to build an AI and cloud platform that can live inside its commerce business, but investors will be looking for proof that the strategy can lift profits as well as traffic. May 13 will show whether the market is willing to pay for the transition before the numbers fully catch up.
