The nba finals race has turned sharply on its head after the first round of the 2026 playoffs, with Boston and Denver both gone and Oklahoma City suddenly sitting at the top of the board. The Thunder, who swept Phoenix, are now -145 at DraftKings and -140 at BetMGM to win the title after entering the postseason at +135.
Philadelphia’s upset of Boston helped blow up the East bracket, where three of the four first-round series went seven games. With the Celtics out, the Knicks have become the conference’s new favorite to win the title, listed at +850 at DraftKings and +900 at BetMGM.
Oklahoma City’s rise is built on more than the numbers from one week. The Thunder swept the Lakers 4-0 in the regular season and beat them by an average of 29.3 points, and Luka Dončić played only one full game in that four-game series. They also carried over their regular-season form into the playoffs, then got more than a week of rest before opening the second round.
That does not mean the path is clean. Jalen Williams suffered a Grade 1 left hamstring strain in Game 2 against Phoenix, and Oklahoma City still has to prove it can keep rolling without a key piece if he is not right. Even so, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the MVP favorite and the face of a team oddsmakers have moved to treat as the league’s most likely champion.
The West remains the center of gravity even as the bracket keeps breaking apart. San Antonio, which entered the playoffs at +450, is now +350 at BetMGM and +370 at DraftKings after beating Portland in five games and setting up a second-round meeting with Minnesota, which upset Denver and has reached the Western Conference finals in each of the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are also waiting for Anthony Edwards to return from a knee injury and will be without Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the postseason.
The first round changed the shape of the race because two of the last three NBA champions were knocked out early, and that kind of turnover does not happen without lasting effects. Boston’s loss opened the door for New York in the East, but the title path still looks as if it will be decided by whatever survives out West. The next stretch will tell whether Oklahoma City’s surge is a real separation or just the latest favorite created by a bracket that has already torn up the old order.
