The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing its tropical outlooks for the Atlantic on May 15, the same day the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins, marking the start of a six-hour watch on disturbances that could develop into tropical systems.
The outlooks flag tropical waves and other weather features the center is watching for possible development over the next seven days. This year, the graphic maps will use two colors for the first time: the familiar lemon yellow blobs for areas with development potential and a gray x for systems with little to no chance of strengthening. Outlooks for the central North Pacific basin start June 1.
Michael Brennan, a hurricane center official, said the timing matters because a quiet stretch can give people the wrong impression about risk. “Especially after a year like 2025 where we didn't have a big U.S. hurricane landfall for the first time in a decade, you don’t want people to sort of think that risk is decreased, because it certainly hasn’t,” he said.
The move reflects how the hurricane center now works through the season. Its outlooks are part of year-round monitoring of significant weather features and disturbed areas, and they are used by shipping, marine traffic and aviation forecasters. The center shifted the daily Atlantic outlook start date to May 15 in 2021 after several years with tropical activity in May.
The early start comes as forecasters try to map a season that could be busy in the Pacific and more restrained in the Atlantic. Colorado State University is projecting normal to slightly below normal activity with 13 tropical storms and six hurricanes, compared with a typical season that brings about 14 tropical storms and seven hurricanes. NOAA is expected to issue an El Niño update on May 1, with its seasonal outlook due May 21.
That broader forecast picture is part of the tension for forecasters and emergency planners: an El Niño is expected to form in the weeks ahead, which would tend to suppress some Atlantic hurricane activity while helping make the Pacific basin busier. The May 15 outlooks are the first sign that the season is being tracked in real time, not as a calendar date but as an active weather watch that will continue every six hours through the months ahead.
For people along the coast, the message is simple. The season is starting, the maps are changing, and the watch is on before the first named storm appears.
