Finland was forecast to win tonight’s Eurovision Song Contest semi final in Vienna after Eurovoix restructured its Eurojury 2026 data to reflect only the countries competing in the first heat, plus Germany and Italy, who vote but are already through to Saturday’s final. Greece led the reshaped jury vote, but Finland’s command of the online vote kept it in front overall.

The split was sharp. Greece finished first in the restructured jury vote, Finland second, Croatia third, Belgium fourth and Sweden fifth. Greece and Finland each collected six sets of 12 points from jurors, while Croatia took 12 points from Belgium and Montenegro. Serbia, Montenegro, Lithuania, San Marino and Portugal were forecast to miss the final by the jury vote.

On the online side, Finland opened a bigger gap. It led by 43 points and finished on 151 points, with Sweden second and Greece third. Finland received 14 of the 18 sets of 12 points in that vote, while Sweden took three. Israel picked up the last 12 points from Georgia, as viewers pushed Moldova to fourth and Montenegro to fifth.

Put together, the combined reworked tables pointed to Finland finishing first overall, followed by Greece, Sweden, Croatia and Moldova. Both the jury and online votes agreed that the top five overall were among the 10 best entries tonight, and they also put Belgium and Israel inside the wider top 10. Montenegro was forecast to qualify thanks to online support and landed eighth overall, while Serbia narrowly entered the top 10 and was saved by the viewers.

The forecast matters because the first semi final offers 10 qualifying places for Saturday’s grand final, and tonight’s vote will decide who fills them. The reworked Eurojury data was based on the 2026 results filtered down to the countries competing in Vienna tonight, plus Germany and Italy, whose automatic qualification means they can vote even though they are already in the final.

That leaves a clear picture heading into the show: jurors and online voters were not aligned on the order, but they agreed on the same broad outcome. Finland had the strongest combined case for victory, Greece was its nearest challenger, and the battle for the last places in the final looked tight enough that Serbia and Montenegro were still only just inside the frame.