The Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins open a three-game series Tuesday night at Target Field in Minneapolis, with first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Miami enters at 19-22, Minnesota at 18-23, and both clubs arrive with a little momentum after winning on Sunday.
The Marlins beat the Washington Nationals 5-2 as -130 home favorites, cashing the Under 8.5, while the Twins held off the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 as +136 road underdogs in a game that sailed Over 7.5. Miami has won three of its last four and is riding a two-game winning streak; Minnesota has also won two straight, though it has lost three of its last five contests.
Tuesday’s matchup puts Edward Perez opposite Bailey Ober in a game priced with Miami at -102 and the total at 9 runs with the Under listed at -115. Perez enters his ninth start at 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 41 1/3 innings. Ober has been steadier but not dominant, going 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 43 innings.
The numbers behind the moneyline help explain why the opener is close. The Twins are 0-2 as home favorites this season and had a 29-33 record when favored at Target Field in 2025, while the Marlins are 4-8 as road underdogs this year after going 35-35 in that role last season. Miami’s bullpen has been one of its quiet advantages, carrying the seventh-best xERA at 3.68, the best BABIP at.247 and the lowest HR/9 at 0.50 when Perez exits Tuesday’s game.
Minnesota’s offense has been only middle of the pack against right-handed pitching, ranking 16th in wRC+ at 100 and 16th in wOBA at.320, but it has also brought real swing-and-miss with a seventh-highest strikeout rate of 23.4%. Miami has gone Under in three of its last four matchups, a trend that fits a game where both starters have been hittable enough to keep the total in play without much margin for error. The first club to settle the mound matchup may set the tone for the series before either side can lean on recent wins as proof of anything more durable.
