The Liberal Democrats could wake up on 8 May as the biggest party in English local government, a remarkable outcome for a party that is still fifth in many national polls. If that happens, it will be because Ed Davey’s party has kept grinding forward while bigger rivals have been pulled apart by a more fragmented political landscape.
The Lib Dems will increase their total number of councillors for an unprecedented eighth set of local elections in a row unless the polls turn sharply against them. A particularly strong night for the party, coupled with heavy Conservative losses, could put them ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s party. There is even an outside chance that if Labour performs very badly, the Lib Dems could rise from second place to first in English local government.
At the heart of the campaign is a judgment that national polling is no longer the main guide to local outcomes. Senior party figures believe British politics has become so atomised that headline numbers matter less than they used to, and that the Lib Dems can keep finding support through disciplined targeting rather than broad national appeal. One senior Lib Dem said: “A lot of people seem to be misreading the way things are going. We think we have some of the answers.”
That approach is being tested on 7 May and is aimed mainly at the next general election. The party is using its biggest-ever programme of digital adverts, with most of them directed at Nigel Farage, while also pushing policies designed to cut through the noise of a fragmented system, including a demand to cut fuel duty by 10p and attacks on Farage’s closeness to Donald Trump. One planner said the aim was to “cut through the noise”.
The target list is not random. In the blue wall areas where the Lib Dems won dozens of parliamentary seats from the Conservatives in 2024, they want consolidation or further gains, and in places such as Birmingham and Preston they are looking for more council advances as well. One Lib Dem MP said: “In places like Surrey we want to show we can finish the job on the Tories.” Another added: “I call it electoral bamboo.”
The party’s leaders are also trying to prove that their method works beyond a single local by-election or a single region. A strategist said: “It’s not something we’re necessarily expecting this time – it’s more likely in a year or two. But for all the fuss about Reform, year after year we are quietly making gains. It’s the tortoise and the hare.”
That long game is why the Lib Dems are pouring effort into messages that voters remember. One MP said: “Iran has had real cut-through.” Another said doorstep conversations were becoming a mash-up of local grievance and global anxiety: “It’s not uncommon to have someone complain about potholes and then switch directly to the war and their worries about Trump.” A further MP said: “It is also really notable the number of doors you knock on where people say they are desperate for anyone except Reform to win. Farage is really polarising.”
The backdrop to all of this is a campaign dominated elsewhere by Reform UK, the Greens, and the contrasting troubles of Labour and the Conservatives. But the Lib Dems are betting that this is precisely why their message can work: in a politics of shards, a party that targets carefully, talks relentlessly and keeps winning council seats year after year does not need to lead every poll to have a shot at leading the count on 8 May.
