NIO’s April deliveries rose 22.8 percent from a year earlier, and the company has now started nationwide deliveries of the upgraded Onvo L90, a fresh sign that the EV maker is trying to turn volume growth into something sturdier. The update lands as Nio stock faces a market that is still judging whether better delivery numbers can outrun a long run of net losses.

The upgraded Onvo L90 comes with NIO’s in-house Shenji NX9031 autonomous driving chip and offers LiDAR options, part of a product push that also includes preparations to launch the ES9 and Onvo L80. For investors, the immediate question is not whether NIO can keep adding models. It is whether those launches can help it defend share in a brutally crowded Chinese EV market where price cuts are still doing a lot of the work.

That matters today because NIO is being measured on more than deliveries. The company is trying to persuade the market that scale, together with its battery swapping network and newer vehicles, can eventually produce sustainable profits. So far, that promise has not been met in the numbers: NIO has continued to post net losses while competition in China keeps pressure on pricing and margins.

The longer-range math is still striking. The narrative attached to NIO projects CN¥148.4 billion in revenue and CN¥7.5 billion in earnings by 2028, with a fair value of $6.49 a share, or 7 percent above the current price. Some lower-estimate analysts, by contrast, assumed revenue of about CN¥147,300,000,000 by 2029 and earnings of only CN¥809,500,000, which underscores how much room there is between an optimistic turnaround and a far more cautious outcome.

The gap is the story. NIO can point to rising deliveries and a broader lineup, but the market is still waiting for evidence that the company can convert that growth into durable margins in a sector where excess capacity and price wars in China could keep profits under pressure for longer than bulls expect.